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Volume I, Episode 42
December 10, 2007
US-China Summits in Beijing - QFII Up to $30 Billion (US) - IPOs losing steam?- more
Sinomania.TV

November 27, 2007

Chinese Stock Prices Melt - Sarkozy Up to Beijing - IPO Updates - Will Trent Lott Lobby for Taiwan?

November 20, 2007

Currency Crisis! Dollars Drained by China, OPEC Continue Down - Inflation

November 14, 2007

Time to Short China's Yo-Yo Market? - Mining In or Out? IPOs - more

November 2, 2007

Oil Shock! Price Problems At the Chinese Pump - Stocks: Where's the Correction?

October 24, 2007

SPECIAL REPORT: 17th Party Congress - Shanghai Bubbles? - Market Numbers

October 15, 2007

China Bull Run Gets New Highs - PetroChina - IPOs - Money - more

October 9, 2007

Chinese Stocks Up & Up - IPOs - Iron & Steel - Pacific Pipeline - more

October 4, 2007

Hong Kong Booms - Commodities, Inflation, Oil at $100 a barrel? - more

September 25, 2007

UAW Tells GM No Jobs For China - Markets Hit 5,500 - China's Auto Industry - IPOs

September 19, 2007

New IPOs Rock Shanghai! But is Resistance Building? A Big Push for Private Equity…

September 10, 2007

Report on APEC 2007 - Energy Security - Markets Update - IPOs in Hong Kong

August 30, 2007

Chinese Stocks Stay Up - Big Bond Sale - IPOs - Upcoming Party Congress

August 22, 2007

China Stock Markets Get Higher But For How Much Longer? - Surprise Rate Hike - IPO Update

August 14, 2007

China Toy Recall - Markets & IPOs - Western Banks Catch Asian Flu?

August 6, 2007

Shanghai Composite Busts Past 4,600 - Beijing Bets on Banks - Chinese IPOs in Japan

July 31, 2007

China Stocks Up Again & Again! - Pussyfooting Around Currency? - Democracy in Japan?!

July 25, 2007

Will Barclay's Turn Chinese? 2Q/H1 Macro Report + IPOs!

July 19, 2007

Food Fight! China-USA sling hash / Peak Oil? / Markets Flat Line...

July 10, 2007

Chinese markets confused? Big IPOs - Chery+Chrysler

June 27, 2007

COSCO - China Mobile - IPOs - Telecom Mergers & Acquisitions

June 21, 2007

New Record Highs in Hong Kong, Shanghai: Will Beijing Put On the Squeeze? - IPOs & more

June 15, 2007

Fundamental Misalignment: US-China currency war - stock markets up & IPOs

June 7, 2007

China Stock Pop - Hot News items - climate change, tainted food...

May 31, 2007

Chinese stock markets hiccup - IPOs - USA-China Trade Gap

May 25, 2007

Report on the 2nd USA/China Strategic Economic Dialogue: Win-Win or When-When? - Market numbers - New IPOs


May 18, 2007

New life for Hong Kong? IPO Update - USA/China summit


May 11, 2007

Will Shanghai end up like NASDAQ or Nikkei? - IPOs


April 30, 2007

Tulips to Dotcom - is Sino Mania the next big bubble?


April 20, 2007

The Heat is on! - IPO Report - Air Pollution in China


April 15, 2007

China markets, IPO update, Beijing Ready for Olympics?


March 30, 2007

China markets up, up, up! Sinomania! goes to China


March 23, 2007

Focus on National People's Congress... Hi-Tech, IPOs


March 17, 2007

China's new investment strategy, IPOs, the Wrap...


March 7, 2007

China syndrome or hong bao bounce? New IPOs... more!


February 27, 2007

China Stock Market Yo-yo, new IPO issues, the wrap


February 17, 2007

Chinese New Year edition! Will China buy Chrysler & more!


February 9, 2007

The USA-China WTO trade dispute and New IPOs


February 1, 2007

IPOs: New Red Chip — Bubble Burst? — USA-China


January 26, 2007

BUBBLE TROUBLE? — IPOs on NASDAQ — Renminbi Yuan


January 20, 2007

IPOs in 3 hot sectors — BAOSteel — Macro Report


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TRANSCRIPT: Analysis of Chinese stock markets, the 18th US-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade, the 3rd Strategic Economic Dialog, is the China IPO fever cooling? and more...
Sinomania! Volume I Webisode 42, December 10, 2007

Beijing Gives Wall Street A Present!
Markets Recover Again …
And Is China's IPO Train Running Out of Track?

MARKETS UP

The Shanghai Composite Index closed December 10 at 5,161.919 and appears for the moment to be happy around 5,000. The CSI 300 has recovered most of the loss over the past month and closed today at 5,133.56. Shanghai B shares are trending up and back where they were a month ago closing today at 361.625. ShenZhen Bs closed Monday at 720.287 after rising dramatically since our last episode and are back to last month's levels.

Ahead of this week's summits with American officials, the Yuan is up but few serious analysts believe Beijing will alter its gradual appreciation strategy. Morgan Stanley economists are calling for the Yuan to reach no more than 6.80 to the dollar by the end of next year.

Meanwhile the impact of the so-called "Sub-Prime Crisis" on China remains unknown. The economy continues hot - November money supply grew 18 and a half percent and inflation was up 6.9 percent in the same period the highest yet this year and a big worry for Beijing.

The world's regulators, bankers, investors, journalists, and comedy writers have yet to decide whether the current state of affairs is more 1991 or 1998? Is it recession or credit event? Signs seem to point to recession - in the United States. The impact this will have next year on China, US-China relations, the race for the Presidency, and investor confidence will be important to watch.

SUMMIT IN BEIJING

The 18th US-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade opened December 11 in Beijing and will be followed by the third Strategic Economic Dialogue, high-level talks that will bring Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Vice Premier Wu Yi together again along with big delegations on both sides.

The US-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade is a little known but important body that addresses trade and market access. It's meeting will be presided over on the US side by US Trade Representative Susan Schwab and Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez. I was in Washington, DC, last week trying to find out if there will be discussion on China's progress toward joining the WTO Government Procurement Agreement. A year ago, Beijing pledged to enter discussions and reveal its first level market access for government procurement opportunities by December 2007.

The WTO Government Procurement protocol is a potentially huge opportunity for US exporters and Washington is in a position to exert real pressure on Beijing after six years of WTO membership to open its government procurement. But it appears that the meeting will address issues from last year's summit such as getting China to buy American beef. Unfortunately, word from Beijing today is that the commission is using its time on more politically useful and newsy topics such as intellectual property and food and toy safety.

Ahead of the Strategic Economic Dialogue that follows this week, Beijing gave Wall Street a holiday present and specifically answered one of the demands from China currency warmongers in the US Senate. The Chinese State Administration for Foreign Exchange tripled the amount that US institutional investors can put into Chinese stock markets to $30 billion US dollars a year -- Another indication that money will continue flowing into Shanghai. And it's a sign of favoritism toward the United States as the recent EU-China summit ended with no concessions.

There's more: Beijing will allow Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse to set up investment banking businesses in China although it is unclear whether they will be allowed to actually trade domestic Chinese stocks or be limited to underwriting IPOs.

A note on this week's US-China summits: they will mark the final official participation by Wu Yi, called China's most powerful woman, as she has reached retirement age and will step down next March when the National People's Congress ratifies China's new government.

IPO REPORT

According to The Standard, English language newspaper in Hong Kong, IPO passion in China is "spent." High profile investor Lee Shau-Kee of Hong Kong says prices are too high, Thomson Financial says hedge fund managers think China may be "too risky," and there is talk of IPO cancellations and valuations declining.

But so far signs are 2007 will be remembered as the year of the Chinese IPO. To date there have been 203 Chinese listings valued at over $88 billion US dollars. Ninety-eight of the IPOs were on foreign markets.

Of foreign listings Hong Kong got the bulk of business but the New York Stock Exchange had 14 Chinese IPOs valued at almost $4 billion US dollars as of November, eleven percent of overseas Chinese listings.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is in Beijing along with the New York Stock Exchange president to cut the ribbon on the exchange's new Beijing office this week.

And new share offerings keep coming. Here are a few interesting ones to look out for:

VanceInfo Technologies, formerly WorkSoft, a Beijing based IT service provider and offshore software developer, will IPO on the New York Stock Exchange with symbol VIT, selling over seven million American Depositary Shares at a 1 to 1 ratio, priced at $7.50 to $9.50 US dollars.

Another American Depositary Share offer, this time on NASDAQ with symbol ADTV, is CGEN Digital Media Network, an in-store TV advertising network that features slick ads on big flat screen TVs inside China's growing number of big department and specialty stores. Each ADR will represent 20 ordinary shares and be priced at $13 to $15 US dollars.

On Chinese markets, China Pacific Insurance will IPO on Shanghai and then Hong Kong. China Pacific is the third largest insurance company in China and partly owned by the American private equity fund, the Carlyle Group. No other details at this time.

Rural Commercial Bank of Zhangjiagang of Jiangsu Province will IPO in Shanghai, the first rural Chinese bank to win approval for an IPO. I have no other details on that one.

I'll see you next time!

© Sinomania! 2007 All Rights Reserved.

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